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About The nugget. (Sisters, Or.) 1994-current | View Entire Issue (Sept. 30, 2020)
Wednesday, September 30, 2020 The Nugget Newspaper, Sisters, Oregon 11 Commentary... Oregon’s COVID-19 situation needs improvement By Dave Tremblay Columnist In 2020, our lives have been influenced greatly by COVID-19. Unfortunately, many families have experi- enced personal, tragic loss. In every facet of normal life throughout Oregon 4 its 4.3 million residents and 36 counties 4 Governor Brown9s decisions and proc- lamations have a timely, important impact on all of us. In the United States, we just surpassed 205,000 deaths. Following are key facts about Oregon9s COVID-19 situation from the Oregon Health Authority (OHA) web- site, https://govstatus.egov. com/OR-OHA-COVID-19. Note: COVID-19 reporting procedures are dynamic 4 with the objective to capture and use data better. First case: February 28 First death: March 14 Oregon statics (as of 9/27): 32,820 cases, 2,470 hospitalizations, 547 deaths Deschutes County (as of 9/27): 810 cases, 62 hospi- talizations, 12 deaths Sisters, OR (as of 9/25): 25 cases How do we better under- stand COVID-19 and its impact? We look at its past process behavior. Everything is a process. Then, we overlay important events to under- stand cause-and-effect. Our analysis specifically looks for sustainability, predictability, and associated impact(s). An important example of the analysis? There is one hospitalization in 13 diag- nosed COVID-19 cases; the hospitalization rate is 7.7 per- cent to the number to cases. Of course, that is a major health and societal outcome of contracting COVID-19. Within the COVID-19 behavior, we analyzed total cases and resultant hospi- talizations from February 2 through September 19. A key conclusion that was quantified? We need to reduce the current, weekly average case number from 1,564 weekly cases (August 2 - September 19) to the minimal, <statisti- cally derived, stay-at-home= number of 437. That is a herculean reduction of 358 percent! Importantly, the cor- related hospitalization rate would decline significantly as well. In the Oregon COVID- 19 Cases chart (see chart, this page), each week is from Sunday through Saturday. Two critical events are plotted, Oregon9s Reopening (June 5) and the Masks/Enhanced Safety Proclamation (July 1). The top date on the x-axis is the date of tallied/presented data by the OHA. The lower date assumes when COVID- 19 may have been contracted 3 14 days prior. By using this barometer, we gain infor- mation 4 such as possible increases after holidays. There are four different stages in the COVID-19 pro- cess behavior graph. Now, it seems, we are entering into Stage 5. Stage 1: Early indica- tions of COVID; February 2 through March 7. Stage 2: Governor Brown9s <Stay Home, Save Lives= order; March 23 - early June. Stage 3: Re-opening of 31 of 36 Oregon counties. Stage 4: Statewide mask/ safety measures. July 1 through present. From February through May 24, the hospitalization rate to the cases was higher than the subsequent period. Perhaps Oregon9s medical professionals were com- passionately conservative to further diagnosis/treat- ment? After April 26th, more available testing could have reduced the prior hospitaliza- tion to case percentage, too. Our heroic medical staffs were using medicine and technology to provide their best diagnosis and care. Weekly cases were quite predictable during the <Stay Home, Save Lives= period. From March 15 through May 30, weekly cases aver- aged 388; ranging from 302 to 451. This proclamation9s results show the total case was relatively stable; thereby our hunkered-down behav- ior effective. <Not good,= however, since people were adversely affected stiller, but steadily. See COVID-19 on page 15 OPEN FOR BREAKFAST 9 a.m. HAPPY HOUR 3 to 6 p.m. Monday-Friday Open 9 a.m. to 10 p.m. 175 N. Larch St. 541-549-6114 4 hardtailsoregon.com Facebook darcymacey Entertainment & Events Great ideas... RESERVE A DATE NOW! COME VISIT OUR SHOWROOM OCT 1 THUR Variety • Quality • Price Range Buy local from Sweeney Plumbing and save the trip to Bend! Masks required, please! 541-549-4349 260 N. Pine St., Sisters Licensed Bonded / Insured CCB#87587 Gypsy Wind Clothing Comfortable & Aff ordable! 183 E. HOOD AVE. • OPEN WED.-SAT., 10 A.M.- 4 P.M. It will soon be time to blow out your irrigation system OCT 2 FRI OCT 6 TUES Paulina Springs Books Virtual Event Books In Common Regional Literary Event Series with Maxim Loskutoff & Joe Wilkins 6:30 p.m. For more information call 541- 549-0866 or go to BooksinCommonNW.com. Food Cart Garden at Eurosports Trivia Night 5:30 to 6:15 p.m. Family-friendly trivia. Socially-distant. Free. For additional information call Eurosports at 541-549-2471. ? The Open Door Live Music, Sisters Supports Oregon 5:30 p.m. Concert and silent auction to benefi t wildfi re victims. Bands include Dennis McGregor & the Spoilers, Jennifer Fox Band, and Adam and the Woodsmen. Ticketed event with limited seating. Free livestream. Go to PaulinaSpringsBooks. com for more information. Food Cart Garden at Eurosports Friday Car Show 5-6:30 p.m. Bring your cool or vintage car for the free Friday car show. For more information call Eurosports at 541-549-2471. Paulina Springs Books Virtual Event Books In Common Regional Literary Event Series with Smith Henderson, Jon Marc Smith & Chad Dundas 6:30 p.m. For more info call 541-549-0866 or go to BooksinCommonNW.com. NEED IT, RENT IT! OCT 8 THUR 541-549-9631 331 W. Barclay Dr., Sisters Mon-Fri: 7 a.m.-5:30 p.m. Sat: 8 a.m.-5 p.m. www.sistersrental.com Paulina Springs Books Virtual Event Books In Common Regional Literary Event Series with Johanna Garton 6:30 p.m. For more information call 541-549-0866 or go to BooksinCommonNW.com. Food Cart Garden at Eurosports Trivia Night 5:30 to 6:15 p.m. Family-friendly trivia. Socially-distant. Free. For additional information call Eurosports at 541-549-2471. Events Calendar listings are free to advertisers. Submit items by 5 p.m. Fridays to lisa@nuggetnews.com ?